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Petrochemical industry is showing a good trend in the quarter

Time:2013/6/15 12:23:20 Hit:
2015 full year oil and gas consumption is expected to reach 7.13 tons (oil equivalent) or so, an increase of 4.6%, and the total amount of major chemicals increased by about 5%. China Petroleum and chemical industry (hereinafter referred to as "the petrochemical industry") is expected to change the total annual main business income and profits from negative growth in the first half of the year to both positive. This is the reported from the 2015 China Petroleum and chemical industry economic operation meeting which was in August 4th.

China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association (referred to as the "Petrochemical Association") also released the China Petroleum and chemical industry index. According to reports, the second half will be strict with industry access, and  implement the negative list management, while the industry transfer from the east to the Midwest to carry out joint restructuring. Industry insiders said that the Internet + big agriculture, Internet + electricity suppliers and the car aftermarket, fine chemicals and new materials, environmental protection and industry integration, the reform of state-owned enterprises will bring industry more investment opportunities.

"Joy and sorrow", Petrochemical Association three session of the council president Yongwu Li described this first half year oil and chemical industry economic operation situation. With the international oil prices bottomed out, the industry's total demand rebounded. Thus the petrochemical industry economic growth is in a good trend, the whole industry increased by 8.8% in the first half, higher than the same period and scale industry added value for 2.5 percentage points, which is the first time the increase higher than the scale of industrial added value growth since 2011.

The other two important economic indicators of income and profit also appear positive changes. Data shows that the first half of the industry has achieves the main business revenue of 6.35 trillion, down 5.7%. When compared with the previous 2 months, the previous 4 months, it was narrowed down by 2.4 percentage points and about 1 percentage points respectively. While the total profit fell by 25% to reach 3132.1 billion yuan, the oil refining industry profit has the growth of 75.6%, chemical industry profits grew by 11.1%. In addition, the stocks decline of the whole industry appears for the first time in many years, among who, the oil refining industry fell by 27.8%, chemical industry rose by 3.1%, both are the lowest level since the international financial crisis.

But the first half of the total apparent consumption of oil and natural gas is 3.51 tons (oil equivalent), an increase of 3.6%, down 1.4% percentage points for the same period. The main chemical apparent consumption has the growth of 4.1%, down 0.7 percentage points. Even more worries is that the first half of the petrochemical industry fixed asset investment growth is only 2.6%, which is a lowest record. Among them, the oil and gas exploration industry investment decreased for the first time in 3 years, an increase of -6.5%, the oil refining industry investment grew -6.6% only, which is the first drop since 2010.

According to Wenlei Zhang, vice chairman of China Chlor Alkali Industry Association, the current industry exists many zombie companies, which haven't opened for a while. And more than two dozen listing Corporation, there are three or four companies are busy with the shell because of the loss. In addition, mergers and acquisitions activity in market is also very frequent.

“Objectively, the global economic recovery is slow, the domestic economy into the ‘new normal’, the total demand is slowdown. But we should also see that the global economy and China's economy is in structural adjustment, especially the domestic urbanization, new industrialization, information technology is still in a rapid development stage, growth. And the demand potential is huge, the key is our production capacity to meet the market consumption upgrading, high-end product development and differentiation of demand." Petrochemical Joint Executive Vice President Shousheng Li believes that the current trend of the petrochemical industry to the good is not stable and strong, and the second half of the development of the situation is still complex, to maintain a good situation with overcomes of many difficulties.

The first is the international oil price. By Petrochemical Joint judgment, the pattern of global oil supply is greater than the demand will not change in the short term, and the future trend of oil prices in general is in moderate changes. They Expected that three quarters international crude oil spot prices will be roughly flat with the two quarters, and the global average price is $60 / barrel.

However, the second half of the macroeconomic activities continues to increase, and the annual oil and gas consumption is expected to be total 7.13 tons (oil equivalent), an increase of 4.6%, the total amount of major chemicals increased by about 5%. While oil and chemical industry increased by about 9%, the main business income of about 142 thousand billion Yuan, an increase of about 1%; total profit of about 7550 billion yuan, an increase of 4%. Total exports value about $1976 billion U.S. dollar, roughly flat with last year.

Industrial Securities chemical chief analyst Fangbiao Zheng also said that the overall growth of the domestic demand for chemicals maintained smooth. The industry as a whole is still in the production stage, but the profit gradually transit to improved window. Sub sectors of the second half year seriously, the capital market is concerned about the Internet + big agriculture, Internet + electricity suppliers and automotive aftermarkets, fine chemicals and new materials, environmental protection and industry integration, state-owned enterprises reformation and other would bring the chemical listing Corporation more investment opportunities.

In fact, as early as in the first half, the synthetic materials, special chemicals, pesticides, paintings (Pigment) and organic chemical raw materials and other technology, has relatively high technology content, high added value of the industry's growth rate and contribution rate, which has been ranked in the forefront of chemical industry. In the second half, in addition to coordinate with the relevant departments of strict industry access, the implementation of negative list management, strict control of new capacity in the industry, acceleration of the elimination of backward production capacity, the petrochemical joint will continue to develop the new economic growth point, while promoting the eastern part of the industry to accelerate the high end, and promote the orderly transfer from Eastern mature industry to miswest. In addition, we should actively carry out joint restructuring, through the capital link to integrate upstream and downstream production and management, and actively promote centralized procurement and inventory sharing, strengthen the sales collaboration, and improve the efficiency of the use of funds.

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